OPINION: If The Establishment Can’t Coalesce - Trump Wins the Nomination
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OPINION: By Jason Marshall
On Saturday night, we saw what may very well be the end of a political dynasty. Hillary beat Bernie, so clearly, that’s not the dynasty I’m talking about. After finishing 4th behind Trump, Rubio and Cruz, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, decided it was time to exit the race. Clearly, having his brother, former president George W. Bush, and his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, campaign on his behalf, wasn’t enough to propel Jeb over the top. Now, the question becomes, what’s next in this primary process?
Taking a look at the RNC schedule, Nevada is up next on February 23rd. Beyond Nevada, we have Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia, in the first Super Tuesday of the 2016 presidential election (also known as the SEC primary). From February 23rd through March 1st, nearly 1/2 of the needed delegates to clinch the nomination, 595, are up grabs. The only reliable data we have to work with, from the above listed states, is in Nevada; here, Donald Trump’s support ranges from 39-45% according to the RCP average of 2 polls. Behind Trump are Senators Ted Cruz (17-23%) and Marco Rubio (19%), and Governor John Kasich (5-9%).
The time has come, for those polling fewer than 10% to bow out gracefully. In fact, it’s beyond time. Every Republican nominee has won New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If history is to repeat itself, then Donald Trump will be the nominee. So, how does the anti-Trump movement, inside the GOP, proceed to stop Trump? Conventional wisdom has thus far has failed to maintain any semblance of credibility. Trump has lashed out at John McCain for being captured as a POW during Vietnam, insulted a reporter with a significant disability, referred to Mexicans as murderers and rapists, referred to the Obamacare individual mandate in glowing terms, and essentially blamed President George W. Bush for the World Trade Center being destroyed on 9/11. Heck, he even took on Pope Francis. Clearly, this campaign isn’t shaping up as anyone really expected.
At this point, there is no logical, rational explanation for why either Governor Kasich or Dr. Carson should soldier on through the rest of this nomination process. In reality, what reason would there be for the two candidates that finished behind Bush, to march on, when Jeb decided to drop out? Kasich wants to continue his fight until we get to the mid-west, where he expects to perform at least as well as did in New Hampshire. His home state of Ohio, as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania, represents territory where he may fare much better than he has so far. The trouble with that game plan is that Michigan doesn’t vote until March 8th, Ohio doesn’t vote until our primary on March 15th, and by the time Pennsylvania votes, the nomination could very well be wrapped up.
So, here’s what needs to happen, for the Republican Party to avert a potential disaster, Governor Kasich and Dr. Carson, need to realize that they can’t win the nomination at this point. Trump has now won both primaries and finished 2nd to Cruz in Iowa. Rubio has a 2nd place finish in South Carolina, a 3rd place finish in Iowa, and a 4th place finish in New Hampshire. Cruz has a 1st place, and two 3rd place finishes under his belt. It’s very obvious to anyone with an objective perspective, that this is a 3 horse race.
I mentioned that Bush had a shot at making this a 4 horse race with a strong showing in South Carolina in my New Hampshire wrap-up column. That didn’t materialize. What realistic scenario would cast either Kasich or Carson as a contender, beyond South Carolina? Neither will show well in Nevada on March 1st. Carson’s fall from grace early on in the primary process, has been profound. Carson hasn’t led a single poll nationally, since parents were getting their kids ready for Halloween; yeah, no one really remembers that anymore. Carson’s support could go to Cruz or Trump - most likely to Trump. Kasich hasn’t led any polls this entire time; his momentum ended when he made it into the Ohio debate. If he were to drop out, his support likely goes to Rubio, the only real establishment candidate left.
Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Carson’s support would be split between Cruz, and Trump. And let’s say that Kasich’s support would flow to Rubio. With Bush already out, if we combine the support that Rubio had entering Saturday night, with Bush’s support, and Kasich’s support, Rubio ends up at 30%. That’s not enough to overtake Trump, but it significantly closes the gap. Of course, this is all speculative on my behalf. I don’t know where Bush’s, Kasich’s or Carson’s support would go. None of us can say that for sure. But what I do know is that if Carson and Kasich continue on, this can only help Donald Trump to secure the nomination in Cleveland.
Unless…..unless we end up with a brokered convention. Is that even possible? The last brokered convention was in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was the Democrat nominee. The last time a brokered convention winner won was in 1932, when FDR was successfully elected president. For now, we need to let the process play itself out, and see if the faction of the GOP that is opposed to Trump, can coalesce around a non-Trump candidate.
If this remains a 5-man race for too long, Donald John Trump will become the nominee. There’s about a 75% chance of that happening. That’s a bet I would take, if I were in Las Vegas on Tuesday.
Jason, I think you are making the same mistake that many pundits are making. You are thinking politically and strategically. Trump supporters are ignoring politics and going with their gut and, sticking with the Vegas euphemisms, believe they have already rolled a hard eight with Trump.
Here’s why… Since the 1970s, we have gone back and forth between supply side economics and partial Keynesian economics, depending on which party is in power. The sad truth is, neither have worked very well for us. Every recovery from recession takes longer and longer, due mainly to the loss of decent paying jobs here in the US.
One principle that that both parties have embraced during that time is the concept of a totally free global market. Sounds great, but low cost countries have labor rates that are 20% or less of what our labor rates are. The standard of living in this country, and the resulting cost of living makes it impossible for US workers to compete with that. The Republican mantra has been to eliminate the minimum wage, unions, etc., in order to make our labor rates more competitive. These days, it is going to be a hard sell for any candidate to make a case if the end result is the voter has to live on 20% of what they make today. And let’s not even go in to that whole Democrat redistribution of wealth thing.
This is where Trump has broken the Republican mold. He understands the difference between a free market and a fair market. By imposing import tariffs on imports from low cost counties, he takes away the incentive to move manufacturing off-shore. That makes our workers competitive again, even if artificially induced. Most countries could not get away with pulling stunts like that, but we are still the single largest economy in the world, so corporations will have to play ball to do business here, and they will.
Will prices go up? Certainly, at least for a while. Competition and improved productivity will normalize them over time though.
Now you can agree or disagree with the theory here, but it makes good sense to many and is a very easy one to understand. It is also different from what anyone else has proposed in a very long time. I believe this is what Trump has tapped in to, and most likely why he will win the nomination.
Here’s hoping America does not crap out.
We live in a democracy- that doesnt mean we need to vote Democrat. What we learned in history class and do as adults stay with us but. . . . republican democrat…..It’s important for each and everyone to see those balanced scales we have here in the beautiful USA- yes we have a choice- just make sure you know
Read about Our Liberty and Freedom when our fore fathers wrote the Constitution for its true meaning. Weigh it out , learn and educate before making a choice on such a choice so important. Off my soap box and hopefully touched ones open-minded thinking
Sophia, thank you for a smart and level headed comment,however I can not support Trump.But if he can destroy the repubs, So be it!
Voting for Jeb would have been like voting for the brother of Charles Manson, nice enough guy, but has that murderer lineage thing going on. Like i said in previous posts, the ‘establishment” is coalescing behind wonder boy Rubio. They realize Cruz is a “whack-job” and would scare the crap out of independent voters and anyone with small children. Kasich is very electable, but way to reasonable to garner support from the ultra- conservatives whom vote in primaries. What you see is what you get with Trump, don’t be fooled into thinking he is conservative or even a Republican.
We do not live in a democracy. That is mob rule - mobocracy.
That was our forefathers greatest fear when writing the constitution.
“And to the Republic for which it stands.” Sound familiar?
Don’t believe everything you read or hear, especially here.
Mr. Ted Cruz has my respect and vote.
They are all evil I see the marks of the beast on all there faces I watch them congregate in there evil places me said we a know dem a wicked.
I would prefer Cruz over Trump, but the more the “establishment” screams about Trump, the stronger he gets. People do not care if he mis speaks, or insults someone, every time he does that, he demonstrates that he is NOT a normal politician, the kind that have put this country in the toilet. Whatever candidate wears the mantle of “establishment candidate” is probably doomed. A lot of people in DC and more receptive to a Trump win rather than Cruz, because Trump is willing to deal, whereas Cruz sticks to his principles.
Just my opinion because I have the right:
God help us if Trump wins! He speaks as everyone is beneath him, he is a very angry man and speaks angry amd mostly ugly words. He is full of hatred. He is like most of the typical persons living here in Hernando County-Angry! How can one count on someone to run our country when there is Zero respect for this man?
I have not learned nothing from him except how dumb his opponents are and I think he once said he could go into the middle of a road and shoot and kill someone and still be in the lead, wow seriously, how full of himself can one person be? This statement is true and extremely sad but I think it’s true but WHY. Is the reason “money talks, bullshit walks”? Is it because misery loves company? Is it because he had his own TV show, is it because he has a beautiful wife?
Do you really think building a wall will solve all of the U.S problems? Is this money coming out of his pockets because he is filthy rich-No! This and all of his other fantasies are coming from tax payers You and Me!
I believe if this man is elected I can see him pushing the button and stating “your fired” we are all toast because he hasn’t a clue what he is doing or what he is talking about.
His words are what you would see on the Jerry Springer show, purely entertainment not to be taken seriously. God Please help us!
Don’t attack me for my thoughts, I have a right to speak my thoughts just as you. Frankly the bottom line is I am very concerned for my grandchildrens future.
I’m not sure who to choose at the time of our next election but I guarantee it won’t be Trump! I do not like politics or politicians, they say what it is what the people want to hear but Trump isn’t even doing that right.
Please think hard about this, your life depends on it.
That’s my opinion, what’s yours? Please don’t be hateful with your post, I really would like another persons perspective, maybe I’m wrong, maybe I missed something.
Thank You
Have a Blessed Evening😇
Based on tonight’s numbers in Nevada, it does not seem to matter if it is a 5 man race, or a 3 man race.
Cruz would be worse than Trump by far.
“He is like most of the typical persons living here in Hernando County-Angry!” Huh? What makes you think this? Most everyone i know or meet out in public seems reasonably happy. If they are angry, it’s not typically about politics.
Sophia, my thoughts also, your first post was outstanding! People are not angry they are fed up.
Unique, my opinion is anyone but Burnme or hidious Hillary, why can’t people understand there is no such thing as free, right socialistguy!
KHJ, actually we live in a Constitutional Republic.
If the GOP loses this election the blame will be rightfully laid at the feet of the establishment and the elected RINOs that control them (or is it vice-versa?). Whoever is the duly-elected nominee, all voters will have to vote for him. Period. Or we lose to Hillary (who will be the Dem nominee…forget Bernie). Politically-constrained (PC) elected officials etc…have REFUSED to recognize the popularity of Trump among the voters. They are STILL refusing to endorse him despite his strong showings in all caucuses to date. The voters hear unfiltered truth coming out of Trump’s mouth. They like it and they want more. It matters not one whit if the DC establishment ALL have Phds and are networked in with God Himself. Today’s voters want action, not talk: pragmatism, not Sainthood, security, not open borders, fiscal responsibility not profligate vote buying…oh, sorry…spending, a strong military, not our President bowing to foreign leaders, a constitutionalist SCOTUS not one that is benched with liberal judicial activists. The list goes on and on. With about 30% of Independents showing for Trump and several other crucial demographics as well…despite lamestream media/RINO/establishment/globalist/socialist media ‘polls’ to the contrary, it’s pretty clear who the GOP nominee will be. As for the other GOP contenders? Too little, too late. Both Kasich and Carson understand that they are playing the roles of spoilers and are benefitting Trump. The bottom line is: people want Trump. If Rince Prebus and his arrogant band of elitists in DC attempt to broker the convention and use super-delegates to award the nomination to their establishment golden boy, Robot Rubio…it will be a sad day for democracy and for this nation. As for small-town GOP establishment commentators who just can’t get over the fact that their little toy machine is broken…get over it. And vote for the GOP nominee whoever it may be because ‘President Hillary Clinton’ will be your worst nightmare…and will be eight more years of Obamaism.
Joeblow=== applause, applause ! !!!!!
Obamaism? What is that? WTF?
Joe blow EXCELLENT POST😃
Trump loves his “low education” fans. Proof seen here.
silly willie, Obamaism is defined as taking an economy that is losing 800k jobs a month under a Republican administration,(W Bush) and turning that into adding 200k jobs a month in a few short months. What Joe Blow is admitting is that Democrats are far better for the economy than Republicans.
Joe Blow, outstanding post! Socialistguy get real!
I ‘admit’ nothing of the sort,HernandoGuy.Not biting your poisoned hook either.
Thanks HG!
Jason Marshall, looking back to your older opinion piece, “Is Trump a Democratic Plant?”. Based on the comments here, it seems more and more likely. Seems to be working too. Can not really blame these people for wanting to “Make America Great Again”. Hard to argue with that.
JB, fishing with a hook requires deception. My comments are fact based.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2012/10/10/want-a-better-economy-history-says-vote-democrat/#3b58cb2667a1
After tonight’s debate, it is clear that Trump is a little child. To him every one is unfair to him. He’s been getting boring repeating the same BS every day. He called out Rubio for that .He does the same thing.If anyone thinks any of these Repugs can run this country…Lets just say…WOW
WOW!!!!