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OPINION: By Jason Marshall
On Saturday night, we saw what may very well be the end of a political dynasty. Hillary beat Bernie, so clearly, that’s not the dynasty I’m talking about. After finishing 4th behind Trump, Rubio and Cruz, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, decided it was time to exit the race. Clearly, having his brother, former president George W. Bush, and his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, campaign on his behalf, wasn’t enough to propel Jeb over the top. Now, the question becomes, what’s next in this primary process?
Taking a look at the RNC schedule, Nevada is up next on February 23rd. Beyond Nevada, we have Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia, in the first Super Tuesday of the 2016 presidential election (also known as the SEC primary). From February 23rd through March 1st, nearly 1/2 of the needed delegates to clinch the nomination, 595, are up grabs. The only reliable data we have to work with, from the above listed states, is in Nevada; here, Donald Trump’s support ranges from 39-45% according to the RCP average of 2 polls. Behind Trump are Senators Ted Cruz (17-23%) and Marco Rubio (19%), and Governor John Kasich (5-9%).
The time has come, for those polling fewer than 10% to bow out gracefully. In fact, it’s beyond time. Every Republican nominee has won New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If history is to repeat itself, then Donald Trump will be the nominee. So, how does the anti-Trump movement, inside the GOP, proceed to stop Trump? Conventional wisdom has thus far has failed to maintain any semblance of credibility. Trump has lashed out at John McCain for being captured as a POW during Vietnam, insulted a reporter with a significant disability, referred to Mexicans as murderers and rapists, referred to the Obamacare individual mandate in glowing terms, and essentially blamed President George W. Bush for the World Trade Center being destroyed on 9/11. Heck, he even took on Pope Francis. Clearly, this campaign isn’t shaping up as anyone really expected.
At this point, there is no logical, rational explanation for why either Governor Kasich or Dr. Carson should soldier on through the rest of this nomination process. In reality, what reason would there be for the two candidates that finished behind Bush, to march on, when Jeb decided to drop out? Kasich wants to continue his fight until we get to the mid-west, where he expects to perform at least as well as did in New Hampshire. His home state of Ohio, as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania, represents territory where he may fare much better than he has so far. The trouble with that game plan is that Michigan doesn’t vote until March 8th, Ohio doesn’t vote until our primary on March 15th, and by the time Pennsylvania votes, the nomination could very well be wrapped up.
So, here’s what needs to happen, for the Republican Party to avert a potential disaster, Governor Kasich and Dr. Carson, need to realize that they can’t win the nomination at this point. Trump has now won both primaries and finished 2nd to Cruz in Iowa. Rubio has a 2nd place finish in South Carolina, a 3rd place finish in Iowa, and a 4th place finish in New Hampshire. Cruz has a 1st place, and two 3rd place finishes under his belt. It’s very obvious to anyone with an objective perspective, that this is a 3 horse race.
I mentioned that Bush had a shot at making this a 4 horse race with a strong showing in South Carolina in my New Hampshire wrap-up column. That didn’t materialize. What realistic scenario would cast either Kasich or Carson as a contender, beyond South Carolina? Neither will show well in Nevada on March 1st. Carson’s fall from grace early on in the primary process, has been profound. Carson hasn’t led a single poll nationally, since parents were getting their kids ready for Halloween; yeah, no one really remembers that anymore. Carson’s support could go to Cruz or Trump - most likely to Trump. Kasich hasn’t led any polls this entire time; his momentum ended when he made it into the Ohio debate. If he were to drop out, his support likely goes to Rubio, the only real establishment candidate left.
Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Carson’s support would be split between Cruz, and Trump. And let’s say that Kasich’s support would flow to Rubio. With Bush already out, if we combine the support that Rubio had entering Saturday night, with Bush’s support, and Kasich’s support, Rubio ends up at 30%. That’s not enough to overtake Trump, but it significantly closes the gap. Of course, this is all speculative on my behalf. I don’t know where Bush’s, Kasich’s or Carson’s support would go. None of us can say that for sure. But what I do know is that if Carson and Kasich continue on, this can only help Donald Trump to secure the nomination in Cleveland.
Unless…..unless we end up with a brokered convention. Is that even possible? The last brokered convention was in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was the Democrat nominee. The last time a brokered convention winner won was in 1932, when FDR was successfully elected president. For now, we need to let the process play itself out, and see if the faction of the GOP that is opposed to Trump, can coalesce around a non-Trump candidate.
If this remains a 5-man race for too long, Donald John Trump will become the nominee. There’s about a 75% chance of that happening. That’s a bet I would take, if I were in Las Vegas on Tuesday.